by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2021 08:20:00 AM
July to August according to the August ADP(R) National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each
month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute(R)
in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data,
measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
“Our data, which represents all workers on a company’s payroll, has highlighted a downshift in the labor
market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following significant job growth from the first half
of the year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Despite the slowdown, job gains are
approaching 4 million this year, yet still 7 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels. Service providers
continue to lead growth, although the Delta variant creates uncertainty for this sector. Job gains across
company sizes grew in lockstep, with small businesses trailing a bit more than usual.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to have
dented the job market recovery. Job growth remains strong, but well off the pace of recent months. Job
growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.
This was well below the consensus forecast of 638,000 for this report.
The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 728 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in August. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.