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August 17th COVID-19: Wave Still Increasing


by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2021 05:02:00 PM

New data from Israel: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta (get vaccinated and mask up!)

Update: Great explainer here (not as bad as it seemed) Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 5th.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 11th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 14th.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 357,894,995, as of a week ago 352,550,944. Average doses last week: 0.76 million per day.

COVID Metrics TodayYesterdayWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully
Vaccinated50.9%50.8%50.3%>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated
(millions)168.9168.7166.9>=2321New Cases
per Day3?128,347125,036112,259<=5,0002Hospitalized3?72,87471,26657,307<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?553547501<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For “herd immunity” most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).

KUDOS to the residents of the 6 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland.

The following 19 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Jersey at 59.9%, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska, Florida and Iowa all at 50.6%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Illinois at 49.9%, Michigan at 49.6%, South Dakota at 48.0, Ohio at 47.4%, Kentucky at 46.9%, Arizona at 46.6%, Kansas at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.3%, Nevada at 46.0% and Utah at 45.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

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