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August 18th COVID-19: Average Daily Deaths have Tripled Since Low in July

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by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2021 05:32:00 PM

On daily deaths: Just over a month ago, the 7-day average for daily COVID deaths was around 180. Since then, the 7-day average of daily deaths has tripled, and since deaths lag hospitalizations, it seems likely daily deaths will double again. Be careful!
The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 2nd.
The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 10th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 13th.


According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 358,599,835, as of a week ago 353,205,544. Average doses last week: 0.77 million per day.

COVID Metrics TodayYesterdayWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully
Vaccinated51.0%50.9%50.3%>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated
(millions)169.2168.9167.1>=2321New Cases
per Day3?130,121128,508114,963<=5,0002Hospitalized3?74,60273,09959,800<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?554534520<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For “herd immunity” most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).

KUDOS to the residents of the 6 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland.

The following 18 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: New Jersey at 59.9%, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois at 50.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Michigan at 49.7%, South Dakota at 48.1, Ohio at 47.5%, Kentucky at 47.0%, Kansas at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.6%, Alaska at 46.4%, Utah at 46.2%, and Nevada at 46.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

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