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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May; Highest Annual Home Price Increase on Record


by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2021 10:16:00 AM

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 4.73% of mortgage were delinquent in May, up from 4.66% of mortgages in April, and down from 7.76% in May 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.28% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.38% a year ago.

This gives a total of 5.01% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight: Home Prices Surge Nearly 18% Annually as May Sees Greatest Single-Month Acceleration on Record; eMBS Securities Issuance Data Suggests Borrower Behavior Changing in Response

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. This month’s report looks at the continued, unprecedented levels of home price growth, and the impact that growth is having on mortgage lending and borrower behavior. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, home price appreciation continues to break records, with ramifications that stretch across the real estate and mortgage markets.

“The Black Knight HPI shows home prices in May up nearly 18% from the same time last year,” said Graboske. “Frankly, home values are appreciating at rates we’ve simply never seen before, as low interest rates, ultra-scarce inventory and increasingly competitive homebuyers combine to create a truly unprecedented market.

“Indeed, the rate of growth has been accelerating by more than 2% in each of the past two months, and May’s 2.1% rise marked the sharpest monthly jump on record. Single-family home prices are up more than 18% from last May – also a record. And the growth has been widespread – home price appreciation accelerated in each of the nation’s 100 largest metros in May, with even the slowest appreciating metro area now seeing at least 10% annual growth. Data from our Collateral Analytics Group suggests even further acceleration may be on tap, as the median sales price of single-family homes in the first three weeks of June was already up 25% year-over-year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

o May’s mortgage delinquency increase is only the second since the pandemic
recovery began last June and – like the first – appears to be calendar related
and likely temporary

o It is expected that delinquencies will continue to slowly normalize through the
remainder of Q2 and into Q3, though full normalization will likely take longer still

o Early-stage delinquencies (30 or 60 days past due) rose by 110K in May, while the
number of seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days but not yet in foreclosure)
improved for the ninth consecutive month

And on monthly payments (affordability) from Black Knight:

o Skyrocketing prices are beginning to take a toll on affordability; it now requires $191 (+18%)
more in monthly P&I payments to purchase the average priced home than it did at the start
of the year

o Factoring income into the equation, it now requires 21.3% of the median household income
to make the monthly payment on the average priced home purchase assuming a 20% down

o Even with the average 30-year interest rate hovering at just over 3%, that payment-to-income ratio is up from 18.1% at the beginning of 2021

o In areas like Los Angeles, the ratio has climbed as high as 46.5%, an unsettling number for
buyers hoping to make the leap into homeownership

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

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