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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.1% year-over-year in October

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by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (“October” is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.1% Annual Home Price Gain in October

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

In October, 18 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments

“”In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.8% in October (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in October.

The National index is 48% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in October. The National index is up 100% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 18.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.1% year-over-year.

Price increases were close to expectations. I’ll have more later.

Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?

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