by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2021 01:11:00 PM
Two key points:
1) Existing home sales are somewhat above pre-pandemic levels rate of around 5.5 million SAAR (average six months prior to pandemic). Seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for July 2021 were also the highest since 2006 – about 2% above July 2020.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 12.0% year-over-year (YoY) in July. Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted:
Months-of-supply at 2.6 months is still very low, but above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.
The year-over-year comparison will be more difficult in the second half of the year.
The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.
This was the second highest sales for July, NSA, since 2006.