by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 03:44:00 PM
Two key points:
1) Existing home sales are still somewhat above pre-pandemic levels. Seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for May were the highest since 2006, and sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in June 2021 were also the highest since 2006.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 18.8% year-over-year (YoY) in May. Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted:
Months-of-supply at 2.6 months is still very low, but above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.
The year-over-year comparison will be more difficult in the second half of the year.
The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.
This was the highest sales for June, NSA, since 2006.