by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2021 09:12:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly. The participation rate declined, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.8%.
In September, the year-over-year employment change was 5.7 million jobs. This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020.
Permanent Job Losers
This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg).
In August, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.251 million from 2.487 million in August.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers.
The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in September to 81.6% from 81.8% in August, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 78.0% from 78.0% in August.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
was essentially unchanged for the second month in a row. There were 4.4 million persons in
this category in February 2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time
employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable
to find full-time jobs.”
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged in September at 4.468 million from 4.469 million in August. This is back close to pre-recession levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.5% from 8.8% in August. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
According to the BLS, there are 2.683 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 3.179 million in August.
This does not include all the people that left the labor force.
The headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, however the previous two months were revised up by 169,000 combined. And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 4.8%.