by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 08:00:00 AM
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
U.S. annual home price growth remained strong at 18% in October, the highest recorded in the 45-year history of the index. Nonetheless, monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and signals a moderation in price growth that the CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects will continue to slow in coming months.
Despite affordability challenges, a recent CoreLogic consumer survey shows that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs — further supporting the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains.
“New household formation, investor purchases and pandemic-related factors driving demand for the limited supply of available for-sale homes continues to propel the upward spiral of U.S. home prices,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, we expect home price growth to moderate over the near term as many buyers take a break for the holidays.”
Nationally, home prices increased 18% in October 2021, compared to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to September 2021.
Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.5% increase by October 2022 as affordability and economic concerns deter some potential buyers and additional for-sale inventory becomes available.
“Single-family detached houses remain the preferred home for buyers during the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This is reflected in the 19.5% annual price rise for detached houses, which marks another record-high for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.”