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Early Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 6% to 7% with "Significant downside risk"


by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 11:16:00 AM

From BofA:

We look for growth of 7.0% qoq SAAR in 3Q … We forecast retail sales fell by 2.3% mom in July, reflecting cooling service demand on Delta concerns and weaker online spend from the pull forward in the timing of Prime day. This poses significant downside risk to our 3Q GDP forecast; if we are correct, 3Q GDP tracking could fall to 3%. [August 13 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.8% for 2021:Q3. [August 13 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on August 6, down from 6.1 percent on August 5. [August 6 estimate]

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