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Early Q4 GDP Forecasts: Around 5% to 6%

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by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2021 02:51:00 PM

Here we go again. The course of the economy is still dependent on the course of the pandemic.

From BofA:

We are taking the glass-half-full approach and holding to our forecast for 6% real GDP growth in 4Q with a gradual slowing through the course of 2022. However, we acknowledge the risks to the downside particularly from higher inflation and weaker consumer sentiment, chiefly the expectations measures. [October 29 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs

We launched our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +4.5% (qoq ar). [October 29 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.6 percent on October 29. [October 29 estimate]

Real Personal Income: Transfer Payments

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