by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2021 02:13:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In September, about half of participants expected one rate hike in 2022. Now, participants expect 3 rate hikes in 2022.
Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at close to a 6.5% annual rate in Q4 that would put Q4-over-Q4 at around 5.4% – so the FOMC projections for 2021 were revised down.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of October 2021, PCE inflation was up 5.0% from October 2020.
The projections for inflation were revised up sharply and the FOMC sees inflation solidly above target in 2022 and 2023.
PCE core inflation was up 4.1% in October year-over-year.
Projections for core inflation were revised up.