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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

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by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2022 08:25:00 PM

Friday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.5%.

o At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 68.6.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Now
Week
Ago
Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated
63.6%

>=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)
211.2

>=2321
New Cases per Day3
596,859
744,805
<=5,0002
Hospitalized3
139,974
145,650
<=3,0002
Deaths per Day3?
2,288
1,829
<=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases and hospitalizations are now declining.
Unfortunately, deaths are still rising – now averaging over 2 thousand deaths per day – but below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.

A Few Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment

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