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Homebuilder Comments in July: “The frenzy is over, but things are still strong"

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by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2021 12:08:00 PM

Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

Analyzing July new home trends from our just published monthly builder survey. Top 3 themes: 1) Frenzy phase for housing is over, but still solid demand. 2) Fewer builders restricting sales. 3) Hitting price ceilings in more markets. Commentary from across the country to follow.

#Austin builder: “Builders are starting to offer incentives again to drive traffic and sales.”

#Dallas builder: “We have hit price ceilings in the majority of our submarkets.”

#Denver builder: “Already seeing prices flatten. Little buyer urgency in the market right now. Some is seasonal but feeling like the market is tapped out in pricing. Market is still very healthy but has lost its frenetic pace. Feels healthier and a bit more balanced.”

#SanDiego builder: “The frenzy is over, but things are still strong. However, you can feel the difference.”

#RiversideSanBernardino builder: “It doesn’t feel like we’re done with price appreciation. It feels more like a decline in the rate of increases. Prices have now reached a point where it is getting harder to qualify people.”

#Atlanta builder: “Major pause in the market w/on-line activity, which is 1/4 normal, w/leads way down & sales significantly down. Very little inventory to sell, mixed w/first ‘seasonality’ in almost 2 years. White hot frenzy from January to May of this year is clearly over.”

#Charlotte builder: “No sales in June because we did not allow any and we had maximum that could be sold in July. Need to give production and design time to catch up on our backlog.”

#RaleighDurham builder: “The market can’t maintain its trajectory. If it does, local and long-term residents will be completely priced out of the market.”

#Greensboro builder: “We continue to experience delays in construction that stop our cycle build time, which limits our inventory and frustrates buyers, sellers, and trades.”

#Wilmington builder: “Just starting to put specs on the market again but trickling out based on stage of construction. Not preselling. Getting some price resistance now, but not backing off our price.”

#Nashville builder: “Starting to feel price hesitation, especially from first-time homebuyers and in outer shoulder markets.”

#Chicago builder: “We have seen a slowdown in overall activity in the last few weeks. Pace of sales is still good but not what it was, and seeing more price reductions than we have in the past.”

#Jacksonville builder: “Sales have definitely slowed down which is expected in July. The sales we are seeing are mostly from out-of-town buyers who don’t have the sticker shock like the “locals” do. I do believe we’ve peaked as far as pricing is concerned.”

#Naples builder: “We continue to have a sales moratorium in Southwest Florida. This most likely will last another 60 days before we can release any new homes. We need to spend this time to catch up on our backlog.”

#WashingtonDC builder: “There is a pronounced slowdown due to communities selling out faster than expected, limitations on sales, particularly townhomes and condominiums, and the lack of affordable first time buyer products.”

#Harrisburg builder: “Sales have decreased due to not having enough available lots ready in this market.”

#Provo builder: “Cancellations aren’t a concern – see some buyers’ remorse after quick contracts. We are able to rewrite cancelled homes with another new buyer quickly.”

#Reno builder: “Sales are tapering due to reduced starts, driven in part by labor & material shortages. Seeing traffic slowing (seasonal slowdown, people traveling, taking vacations & school starts in a few weeks) which contributes to tapering sales.”

#Oakland builder: “We continue to be temporarily sold out at all of our communities and have long waiting lists.”

#Seattle builder: “Seeing a small correction as more inventory becomes available. Suspect we’ll find the market & pricing remain flat with some incentives on move-in ready homes.”

July Employment Report: 943 Thousand Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate

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