by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2021 10:05:00 AM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 75, down from 80 in July. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
Higher construction costs and supply shortages have led to significant price growth, which in turn has caused prospective buyers to experience sticker shock. The decline in the buyer traffic index to its lowest level since July 2020 is evidence that supply-side constraints have begun to hold consumers back.
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell five points to 81 and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers also posted a five-point decline to 60. The gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 81.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 74, the Midwest dropped two points to 68, the South posted a three-point decline to 82 and the West registered a two-point drop to 85.
This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.
This was well below the consensus forecast, but still a solid reading.