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New Home Sales Increase to 740,000 Annual Rate in August


by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2021 10:10:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 740 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 740,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent above the revised July rate of 729,000, but is 24.3 percent below the August 2020 estimate of 977,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in August to 6.1 months from 6.0 months in July.

The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal).

“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 378,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.”

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In August 2021 (red column), 62 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 81 thousand homes were sold in August.

The all time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations of 714 thousand SAAR and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. I’ll have more later today.

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