by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2021 10:09:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 800 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down significantly.
Development. This is 14.0 percent above the revised August rate of 702,000, but is 17.6 percent below the September 2020 estimate of 971,000
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is in the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal).
In September 2021 (red column), 65 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 77 thousand homes were sold in September.
The all time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011.
This was above expectations of 760 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I’ll have more later today.