The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:
Personal income increased $35.5 billion (0.2 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $130.5 billion (0.8 percent).
Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
The August PCE price index increased 4.3 percent year-over-year and the August PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was slightly below expectations, and the increase in PCE was above expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 0.3% annual rate in Q3 2021. (using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing at 2.2%). This follows a sharp increase in PCE in Q2.