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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 46 States in July

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by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2021 11:34:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2021. Over the past
three months, the indexes increased in 48 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in one, for a three-month
diffusion index of 94. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in one state, and
remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 90. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also
developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.9 percent
over the past three months and 0.8 percent in July.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.


Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is almost all positive on a three month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed.

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In July, 48 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

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