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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.5%

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by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2021 10:33:00 AM

These are forecasts of the advance estimate of GDP to be released on Oct 28th.

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 3 months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

MerrillGoldmanGDPNow7/30/217.0%9.0%6.1%8/20/214.5%5.5%6.1%9/10/214.5%3.5%3.7%9/17/214.5%4.5%3.6%9/24/214.5%4.5%3.7%10/1/214.1%4.25%2.3%10/8/212.0%3.25%1.3%10/15/212.0%3.25%1.2%10/22/212.5%3.25%0.5%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We forecast 3Q GDP growth of 2.5% qoq saar, down from 6.7% qoq saar in 2Q as the effects of the Delta variant stifled consumption. [Oct 22 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We have been assuming higher home sales and home prices in September, and we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +3 1/4 % (qoq ar). [Oct 21 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. [Oct 19 estimate]

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