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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Significant Downgrades

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by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2021 12:34:00 PM

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

MerrillGoldmanGDPNow7/30/217.0%9.0%6.1%8/20/214.5%5.5%6.1%9/10/214.5%3.5%3.7%9/17/214.5%4.5%3.6%9/24/214.5%4.5%3.7%10/1/214.1%4.25%2.3%10/8/212.0%3.25%1.3%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We are taking down 3Q GDP tracking to 2% from 3.8% previously, reflecting a reassessment of equipment and inventories, and the likely soft retail sales data. [Oct 8 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

Following today’s payroll miss and outright decline in education payrolls, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1/4 pp to 3 1/4 % (qoq ar). [Oct 8 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 8 [Oct 8 estimate]

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