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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Around 6%


by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2022 12:59:00 PM

From BofA:

Our 4Q GDP tracking estimate remains at 5.5% qoq saar. [January 14 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 1/2 pp to +6 1/2 % (qoq ar), to reflect the downside surprises this morning on both industrial production and retail sales. [January 14 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.0 percent on January 14, down from 6.8 percent on January 10. [January 14 estimate]

Retail Sales Decreased 1.9% in December

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