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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Moving Up

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by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2021 08:06:00 AM

These forecasts are prior to the news on the B.1.1.529 variant: Heavily mutated coronavirus variant puts scientists on alert

Goldman Sachs also put out a note prior to the variant news:

“We now expect the Fed to announce at its December meeting that it is doubling the pace of tapering to $30bn per month starting in January. … While this faster pace of tapering would allow the FOMC to consider a rate hike as early as March, our best guess is that it will wait until June, when a few additional employment reports will be available. We now expect hikes in June, September, and December …”

From BofA:

4Q GDP tracking remains at 6.0% qoq saar, supported by the strong data this week. [November 24 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs

We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 1pt to +6.0% (qoq ar). This change embeds larger expected contributions from inventories and goods exports, and it also reflects the strong Q3 pace of gross domestic income (+6.7% annualized). [November 24 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent on November 24, up from 8.2 percent on November 17. [November 24 estimate]

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