by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2021 02:13:00 PM
On Friday, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Recovering?
The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey), a sample of approximately 634,000 business establishments nationwide.
These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions).
The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in October, from 61.6% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.
The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.8% from 58.7% (black line).
Since the overall participation rate has declined due to the pandemic and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October to 81.7% from 81.6% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 78.3% from 78.0% in September.