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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 385,000

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by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2021 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, a decrease of 14,000
from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 400,000 to 399,000.
The 4-week moving average was 394,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous
week’s average was revised down by 250 from 394,500 to 394,250.
emphasis added

This does not include the 94,476 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 93,060 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 394,000.

The previous week was revised down.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,930,000 (SA) from 3,296,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,156,982 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,246,162 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,246,207 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 4,233,883.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

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