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Will House Prices Increase "a further 16% by the end of 2022"?

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by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2021 12:27:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: Will House Prices Increase “a further 16% by the end of 2022”?

Excerpt:

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote a research note forecasting US house prices would increase a further 16% by the end of 2022: The Housing Shortage: Prices, Rents, and Deregulation. This caused quite a stir on twitter.

First, this is a projection for the end of next year. The most recent Case-Shiller report was for July, so this projection is for 17 months. This forecast is for an average of about 0.9% per month, well below the 1.5% per month average over the last year.

Here is what the forecast would look like:

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