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Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: 20%+ Year-over-year in July

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by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2021 12:11:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: June 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Hot Growth Summer

The slow rise in inventory that marked the beginning of summer wasn’t enough to cool the sizzling market, with the already rapidly rising Case-Shiller indices hitting the gas accelerating into the middle of the year instead of tapping the brakes.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 18.6% year-over-year in June. Annual growth in the smaller 20-city composite index exceeded the national pace (19.1%) and annual growth in the 10-city index (18.5%) almost matched national appreciation. The annual rate of growth was faster in June than in May in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national index was up 1.8% from May, while the 10- and 20-city indices were up 1.6% and 1.8% month-over-month, respectively.

Demand for housing continues to far outweigh the supply of homes for sale: Competition remains elevated, and homes are still going under contract more than a week faster than they were a year ago. But despite the enduring market competition, more-recent data indicate that the scalding hot housing market may have cooled slightly in recent weeks. The number of for-sale homes has risen meaningfully since the early spring and the increased listings have appeared to bring some balance back to the market. Sales volumes that were falling sequentially in the spring have recently leveled off and price growth has simultaneously softened. All told, home price growth remains sky high, but more signals are appearing that the housing market is likely to soon start coming back to earth.

Monthly and annual growth in July as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from June and May 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 28.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 20.1% in July, from 18.6% in June.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 20.3% YoY in July from 19.1% in June, and for the 10-City index to be up 19.5% YoY compared to 18.5% YoY in June.

ISM(R) Manufacturing index increased to 59.9% in August

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