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Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: National Index Growth to Increase Slightly to 20.0% in August

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by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2021 07:57:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: July 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Scorching Hot

The slow rise in inventory that marked the beginning of summer wasn’t enough to cool the sizzling market, with the already rapidly rising Case-Shiller indices hitting the gas accelerating into the middle of the year instead of tapping the brakes.

Home price growth remained scorching hot as the housing market entered the dog days of summer, but data released in the weeks since indicate cooler days in the months to come. With mortgage rates still near historic lows, competition for the relatively few for-sale homes remain very stiff and home prices continue to rise sharply as a result. But the tight market conditions that have fueled the skyrocketing prices are finally showing signs of loosening. For-sale inventory levels charted their fourth consecutive monthly increase in August, and sellers appear to be taking a less aggressive approach when putting their homes on the market. Annual growth in list prices peaked in the spring and price cuts are becoming more common. And while still-strong price growth continues to present challenging conditions for many would-be buyers, the softening market conditions do appear to be offering some home shoppers a reprieve. Home sales volumes improved in August and applications for home purchase mortgages – a leading indicator of sales activity – has risen in four of the last five week to reach its highest level since April. Price growth remains about as hot as ever, but the housing market is gradually retreating towards a more balanced state.

Monthly and annual growth in August as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from July in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, October 26.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 20.0% in August, from 19.7% in July.

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

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