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Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: September Price Growth Will Remain Strong

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by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2021 07:33:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow Research: August 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Beginning to Ease Off the Gas

House price growth through August sustained July’s unprecedented velocity, but autumn’s reports indicate that the market is easing off the gas pedal.

Compared to August, homes took a little bit longer to sell in September and the for-sale inventory inched higher. In other words, though extraordinary market conditions pushed house prices skyward between the Spring of 2020 and the Summer of 2021, the latest signs indicate that the market is relenting. And while house price appreciation will remain elevated for the next several months, further acceleration is unlikely.

Monthly growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from August in both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slow in the national index. Annual growth in September is expected to accelerate in the 20-city and national index, and slow in the 10-city index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, November 30.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 20.2% in September, up from 19.8% in August.

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